Responses of female labor supply and fertility to the demographic cycle.

A model is proposed in which women change the timing of childbearing and duration of time not working following childbearing in order to mitigate any adverse effects of the demographic cycle upon their lifetime wages. The authors explore the reduced-form empirical implications of their model and estimate the importance of the responses using data from three cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience which include data on women born during 1918-64. Hazard rate estimates of the timing of the first birth and the return to work following that birth indicate that women who were born during the upswing of the demographic cycle begin childbearing earlier and return to work more quickly than do women who were born during the downswing of the demographic cycle. These results suggest that when responding to the demographic cycle, the cohort choice effect is more important than the opportunity cost effect.